The best way to field a winning team year after year is to buy offensive players who are the least likely to get outs. The best stats for predicting that? Not the super-hyped batting average, or even slugging-percentage, but the underappreciated On-Base-Percentage. Hitters who find a way to get on base are hitters who don't make outs. A highly disciplined batter, not only recognizes and waits for pitches with which he can be effective, but also draws walks and elevates the pitch count.
The next best way to win is to purchase pitchers who are the most likely to induce outs. The stats to consider? Walks, homeruns and strike-outs. Why? The idea is that these three are the only ones over which a pitcher has sole control, and apparently these stats remain consistent among the best pitchers from season to season. The number of hits allowed can vary significantly even when these three remain steady. Part of the argument for ignoring hits is that once a ball is put into play, too many factors influence what happens next: field conditions, fielders' positioning, defensive skills, and plain luck. Stats regarding any ball put into play cannot consistently predict a pitcher's performance.
This same argument is used to downplay the importance of superb defense. While I agree that the single stat used for determining fielding ability (errors), might be a poor indication of a player's skill, it is hard for me to accept that the overall effects of good defense are negligible. IF the out is the thing, then wouldn't you want to field those players who are most likely to produce outs - especially the unusual, hard-to-get outs? Moneyball says no. The players' offensive contributions have a much more significant effect on the outcome of a greater number of games than does their defense. Hmmm.....maybe we're just not keeping the right stats to track what impact defense has.
My conclusion is that if you love baseball - like April, Angie and I do - you'll enjoy reading Moneyball. Michael Lewis has taken the potentially tedious topic of baseball economics as it relates to baseball statistics, and made it interesting by including a number of fascinating stories of circumstances and lives from the inside.
Great story. Easy read.
6 comments:
>>if you love baseball - like April, Angie and I do<<
LOL! Do you know I was just about to move on to another blog after reading your first paragraph, realizing this was sports stuff, but decided to skim to the bottom in case you moved on something more interesting. I was surprised to see my name pop out at me!
The only kind of pitcher I'm interested in is one that holds Dr. Pepper and ice.
Excellent post, Lori. For what it's worth, I agree with your analysis of defense in baseball--it's a lot more valuable than typically given credit for. However, it's been interesting that the original moneyball team, the A's, have succeeded recently (especially their 2006 team) using a roster of good fielding players.
Also, there's a lot of people making the argument that the reason the Rays have been so successful this season is the massive improvement in their defense by trading for Bartlett, moving Upton to the outfield, and sticking Longoria at 3b. Interesting stuff.
Anyway, here's a link to the original research done on the pitching stuff you mentioned. Baseball Prospectus is a great site for this kind of statistical analysis. Another good one is www.fangraphs.com.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=878
Josh
I should also add that Jeff Luhnow, the asst. GM for the Cards is a big proponent of all this Moneyball stuff, and it's starting to affect some of their decision making -- for example, drafting Brett Wallace this year. I'm excited about Luhnow.
Josh
Angie, I knew I had to throw you a bone if I wanted to keep your attention!
Josh, Thanks for the links. Moneyball gives credit to a couple of websites, including Baseball Prospectus, for fanning the flames of this line of thinking even before Billy Beane's ideas began to spread...but I had not heard of fangraphs. I'll check it out.
Reading this book made me wonder what position all these new Cardinals decision-makers hold. I didn't know about Luhnow...interesting. Hopefully they blend the Redbirds tradition of great defense with the Moneyball approach to hitting and pitching. Quite frankly, I'd rather see a spectacular defensive play than a homerun anyday!
I am reading the book now. Very interesting so far. Joanie
Good for you, Joanie! Let me know what you think when you're finished!
I'm so glad you're not teaching, aren't you?!
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